崇明生态岛气候变化及影响评价研究-中国气象局图书馆.pdf

2 0 1 7 崇明生态岛气候变化及影响评估研究 穆海振 史军 杨涵洧 马悦 徐卫忠 张皓 （上海市气候中心，上海 200030） 摘要：基于上海崇明气象站气温、降水、日照、风速等数据和主要天气现象记录资料，利用气候统计诊断方法研究了崇 明生态岛主要气候要素和天气现象的变化特征及其生态影响。结果表明，1961—2016年期间，崇明气温显著上升，高 温日数和极端最高气温增加；降水量显著增多，暴雨日数增加，小雨、中雨和大雨对全年总降水量的贡献下降，而暴雨 和大暴雨的贡献增加；风速显著减小，大风日数和极端最大风速减少；日照时数和相对湿度明显减少，雾日数增加。在 气候变化影响下，崇明作物无霜期初日提前，终日推后，无霜期日数增加，有效积温增多，人体舒适度日数增加。但气 候变化会导致当地风能资源减少，大气环境条件不利于污染物的扩散和稀释。研究结果可为绿色、平安崇明建设和世界 级生态岛的可持续发展布局提供借鉴。 关键词：气候变化，天气现象，影响评估，生态环境，崇明 DOI：10.3969/j.issn.2095-1973.2017.06.018 Climate Change and Impact Assessment for Chongming island in 1961-2016 Mu Haizhen, Shi Jun, Yang Hanwei, Ma Yue, Xu Weizhong, Zhang Hao (Shanghai Climate Centre, Shanghai Meteorological Bureau Service, Shanghai 200030) Abstract: Based on meteorological data and record of weather phenomenon at Chongming meteorological station in Shanghai, a research of the climate change and effect on ecological environment in Chongming island are carried out by using climatic statistics methods. The results show that air temperature rose significantly, days of high temperature and extreme maximum air temperature rose from 1961 to 2016. Meanwhile, precipitation and rainstorm days at Chongming also increased, of which the proportion of the rainstorm and heavy rainstorm increased only but the light rain, moderate and heavy rain declined. Besides, it decreased obviously in wind speed, days of strong wind, sunshine duration, relative humidity, while increased indays of fog. Under the impact of climate change, the first day of frost-free season shifted to an earlier date while the last day delayed, leading to extension of frost-free season. It also increased in effective accumulative temperature and days of human comfort. But, it also le