油气长输管道风险评估及风险管理 毕业设计资料.doc

PAGE PAGE 22 摘要 输油管道的风险评估及管理作为一门新兴的学科，通过识别和评价管道运营中面临的风险，制定出相应的风险控制对策，从而将风险水平控制在合理的范围之内，达到减少事故发生、资源理配置的目的。从我国管道的实际情况出发，以风险理论和管道风险评价模型为基础，讨论了油气长输管道的风险管理过程，并采用事故树的分析方法，提出了辨识长输管道所面临的第三方破坏、腐蚀、误操作、设计和自然灾害五种可能的风险源 ,以及这些风险的控制措施和建议。详细介绍了7种风险评估方法：风险专家评分法；故障树分析诊断方法；层次分析法；险模糊分析法；指数风险评价；灰色关联分析法；定量风险评价。分别分析了各种评估方法的优缺点，以及使用的场合。分析了国内外风险评估方法的区别，提出了专家平分法并不适用中国国情，应采用适合我国国情的评估方法。提出了综合运用各种评估方法，遇到不同情况，采用不同的评估方法，以求取得最好的结果。 Abstract Summary of pipeline risk assessment and management as an emerging discipline, through the identification and evaluation of pipeline operators face risks, develop appropriate risk control measures, so that the level of risk at a reasonable range, to reduce the accident occurred, resources the rationale for the purpose of allocation. Pipeline from Chinas actual situation, to risk theory and pipeline risk assessment model based on long-distance oil and gas pipeline risk management process and the use of fault tree analysis method was proposed to identify long-distance pipeline faces third-party damage , corrosion, misuse, design, and natural disasters, five possible sources of risk, as well as the risk control measures and recommendations. 7 kinds of detailed information on methods of risk assessment: risk expert score method; diagnostic fault tree analysis methods; the level of analysis; fuzzy risk analysis; index of risk assessment; gray correlation analysis method; quantitative risk assessment. Analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of various assessment methods and the use of the occasion. Analyzed the difference between risk assessment method proposed law does not apply equally experts to Chinas national conditions, should be used for assessment of Chinas national conditions. Put forward a comprehensive use of various assessment methods, encountered different situations using different assessment methods, in order to obtain the best results. 目录 TOC \o 1-2 \h \z \u 摘要 0 Abstract 0 1．前言 1 2．油气长输管道风险评价研究的意义 2 3．国内外长输管道风险评估及管理动态 3 4．风险评估