中国农村金融效率与农产品对外贸易.docVIP

中国农村金融效率与农产品对外贸易 ——基于1982-2009年数据的协整检验和格兰杰因果分析 熊德平/ 余新平/ 熊皛白 【专题名称】 农业经济研究【专 题 号】F2【复印期号】2012年02期【原文出处】《 中国软科学》(京)2011年10期第36～45页【英文标题】Financial Efficiency and Foreign Trade of Agricultural Products in Rural China: ??　Co-integration Test and Granger Causality Analysis Based on the Data from 1982 to 2009【作者简介】熊德平(1962-　)，男，江苏东台人，宁波大学商学院教授、博士、副院长、党委书记，应用经济学学科带头人，兼职博士生导师，研究方向：农村金融理论与政策；余新平，宁波大学商学院（浙江　宁波　315211）；熊皛白，南京农业大学经济管理学院（江苏　南京　210095）。 【内容提要】 文章基于农村金融效率视角，将农村金融引入生产函数，实证了1982-2009年中国农业信贷和保险效率与农产品出口、进口和进出口依存度的关系。研究显示：在长期关系上，农业信贷效率对农产品出口、进口以及进出口依存度均具正向影响，而农业保险效率则具有负向影响。在短期关系上：农业信贷效率对农产品出口和进出口的影响不明显；农业保险效率则对农产品出口和进出口存在着一定的促进作用；而农业信贷和保险效率与农产进口依存度的关系难以确定。在因果关系上，农业信贷效率与农产品出口依存度具有互为因果的长期正向关系，与农产品进口只有单项因果的长期正向关系；农业保险效率与农产品进口依存度存在互为因果的长期负向关系和短期正向关系；并且其因果关系均具一定的滞后期特征。文章对结果逐一解释其原因后，提出了政策建议。On the perspective of rural financial efficiency, this paper demonstrates the relationship among the agricultural loans, the insurances efficiency, the import and export of agricultural products and the import-export dependence over the period of 1982-2009 by introducing the rural finance into the production function. The results show that the efficiency of agricultural loans has positive effects on the export and import of agricultural products as well as the import-export dependence in the long run; and the efficiency of agricultural insurances has negative effects on them. In the short run, the efficiency of agricultural loans shows no obvious effects on the export and the import-export of agricultural products, however the efficiency of agricultural insurances shows positive effects on the export and the import-export of agricultural products. There remains uncertainty in the relationship between the import-export dependence and the efficiency of agricultural loans and agricultural insurances. From the viewpoint of causality, the results show that long-term positive two-way causality lies between the efficiency of agricultural loans and the import-export dependence, and l