中国种业2020年发展目标的预测分析.doc

PAGE PAGE 5 中国国内种业2020年发展目标的预测分析 高灿红本研究由公益性行业（农业）科研专项（编号: 201203052）资助*通讯作者(Corresponding author): 张文明, E-mail: mailto:zhangwenming_520@163.com zhangwenming_520@163.com; Tel:0551-5786956 第一作者联系方式: E-mail: gaocanhong@163.com; Tel: 0551-5786956 摘要：在统计分析国内各省（市、区）2020年种业发展目标的基础上，预测中国种业至2015年和2020年培育突破性优良品种数目、优势种子生产基地建设面积、打造现代农作物种业集团数目和销售规模等发展目标。结果表明，至2015年和2020年，预计全国培育新品种分别为325－357个和637－708个；基地建设面积分别达224.96万hm2和 270.78万hm2；打造现代农作物种业集团分别为125-133家和145-174家，产值分别达545.9 - 645.3亿元和773.4-909.3亿元，上市种业公司分别为14-17家和25-34家；中国国内种业将朝着规模化和集约化方向发展。 关键词：中国种业；新品种；种子生产基地；现代农作种业集团；预测分析； 中图分类号：S-01 文献标志码：A Predictive analysis of China Seed Industry Development Objectives in 2020 GAO Can-Hong, ZHAO Liang-Xia, XUE Chao and ZHANG Wen-Ming* College of Agronomy, Anhui Agriculture University, Hefei 230036, China Abstract: On the basis of statistical analysis domestic provinces’ (municipality, autonomous region) seed industry development objectives in 2020, China seed industry development objectives to 2015 and 2020 were forcasted. Such as, the number of breakthrough excellent new varieties, the area of the dominant seed production base, the number and sales scale of modern crop-seed industry group.The results show that, to 2015 and 2020, the number of new varieties will be able to 325-357, 637-708,respectively; the area of seed production base will be able to 2.25 million hectare and 2.71 million hectare,respectively; modern seed industry group, the number will be able to 125-133 and 145-174, the sales scale will be able to 545.9-645.3 billion and 773.4-909.3 billion, the number of listed seed industry in stock market will be able 14-17 and 25-34,respectively.China seed industry will move towards the development of large-scale and intensive direction. Key words: China seed industry; New varietie; Seed production base; Modern crop-seed industry group; Predictive analysis 中国是一个农业大国，农业是立国之本，种业是农业的先导产业。近年来，国家对现代农作物种业非常重视，先后密集出台多项种业新政，中国种子产业发展进入了前所未有的机遇期。尤其是去年颁布的《国务院关于加快推进现代农作物种业发展的意见（国发[201