德意志银行-xx集装箱板：衬板胜于瓦楞原纸；lmp胜过ndp-20170602-deutschebank.pdfVIP

Deutsche Bank Markets Research Asia Industry Date China China 2 June 2017 Resources Containerboard Industry Update Johnson Wan Linerboard over corrugated medium; Research Analyst (+852 ) 2203 6163 prefer LMP to NDP johnson.wan@ 2Q spreads retreat despite environment-related shutdowns in April and May Top picks After averaging NP/t of c.RMB800-850/t in 1Q17, NDP margins corrected back Lee Man Paper (2314.HK),HKD6.90 Hold to their recent historical levels of RMB200-220/t for the months of April and Nine Dragons Paper (2689.HK),HKD9.85 Sell May. In contrast, LMP’s margins have held up much better with, we estimate, Source: Deutsche Bank NP/t of c.HKD1,000-1,100/t for 1Q17 and c.HKD710/t for the months of April and May. The difference in product mix accounts for the disparity with NDP Companies Featured more exposed to the corrugated medium and duplex board products, where margins are much lower compared to those of linerboard. Lee Man Paper (2314.HK),HKD6.90 Hold 2016A 2017E 2018E Weak April demand; April imports fell after price cuts but still high vs. before P/E (x)