德意志银行-xx银行业-chinese banks：june 2017 banking volume–why has slower credit not hurt gdp much-20170713-deutschebank？.pdfVIP

Deutsche Bank Markets Research Asia Industry Date Hong Kong Chinese banks 13 July 2017 Banking / Finance Banks Industry Update Hans Fan, CFA Jacky Zuo June 2017 banking volume – Why has Research Analyst Research Associate (+852 ) 2203 6353 (+852 ) 2203 6255 slower credit not hurt GDP much? hans.fan@ jacky.zuo@ Credit and M2 growth slowed, but the real economy maintained its momentum Stephen Andrews, CFA The PBOC reported new loans of Rmb1.54trn and TSF of Rmb1.78trn for June Research Analyst 2017. While both exceeded consensus estimates, China’s credit growth slowed (+852 ) - 2203 6191 to 14.7% yoy in June from 15.2% in May (Fig 1), keeping the credit impulse stephen-a.andrews@ (three-month TSF as a percentage of GDP) below the 10-year average (Fig 2). This contradicts the still resilient economic momentum evidenced by a stable Top picks PPI and above-50 PMI. In our view, improving corporate profitability, a reduction in self-circulating funds and better credit allocation efficiency provide ICBC (1398.HK),HKD5.19 Buy buffers. While financial deleveraging may continue, we expect only a modest