HS-全球-外汇策略-非常时期的货币展望-2020.3-62页.pdf

Currencies Global March 2020 By: HSBC FX Strategy Currency Outlook Extraordinary times These are extraordinary times. The COVID-19 pandemic and a collapse in oil prices have seen Treasury yields sink to record lows, equity markets reach bear market territory, and gold trade at seven-year highs. Policymakers across both DM and EM are scrambling to mitigate the adverse economic impacts. We outline in various pieces what this means for FX. Disclosures & Disclaimer: This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Currencies ● Global March 2020 Executive Summary These are extraordinary times for financial markets. The COVID-19 pandemic and a collapse in oil prices have seen Treasury yields sink to record lows, equity markets reach bear market territory, and gold trade at seven-year highs. Policymakers across both DM and EM regions are scrambling to mitigate the adverse economic impacts. In G10, central banks are following the Fed after its 50bp emergency rate cut. But what does this all mean for currencies? FX is going structural. A spotlight now shines on the policy flexibility (or lack thereof) of central banks and governments. In our view the USD should remain resilient, as the Fed sits on a bigger cushion of monetary policy compared to its G10 peers, and the USD remains the most