友谊农场日极大值降水统计特征及频率计算.docx

经典专科、本科、硕博、研究生、期刊毕业论文 仅供参考 精心整理 仅供参考 勿用作商业用途 目 录 TOC \o 1-3 \h \z \u 摘　要 3 Abstract 4 引言 6 1 研究区概况 6 2 数据与分析方法 7 2.1 基本气象数据 7 2.2 降水量时间序列分析 7 2.2.1 趋势分析法 9 2.2.2 突变分析法 10 2.2.3．cv计算 10 2.2.4．日极大值降水量频率分析 11 3 结果与分析 13 3.1 趋势性分析 15 3.2 突变性分析 17 3.3 cv计算分析 18 3.4 日极大值降水量频率计算 19 4 结论 19 参考文献 32 致 谢 33 友谊农场日极大值降水统计特征及频率计算 摘要：利用趋势分析法、Mann-Kendall 突变分析法、cv值计算，频率分析及计算，和变异区间的均值，对友谊农场1981-2010年间的降水量变化进行分析。结果表明:时间上， 友谊农场各年日极大值降水量序列在时间整体上变化趋向并不明显，并且在取6，7，8，9月为特殊月，而在时间序列内部存在不同突变趋向，存在以6，7，8，9月的波动状态;友谊农场内部降水量序列在时间上没有显著的变化规律，然而在时间序列内出现突变趋势，即1998年开始呈下降趋势，至2009 年开始呈上升趋势，存在与各行政分区主周期相同的波动状态。通过cv计算也可以发现，6，7，8，9月份的变异程度均大于每年日极大值降水量的变异程度，且七月份尤为明显。日极大值频率分析{20%，50%，75%}与计算，表示出友谊农场近30年的降雨量状况较良好。 关键词：友谊农场 趋势分析法 Mann-Kendall 突变分析法 cv值计算 变异区间的均值 日极大值降水量的分析与计算 Statistical characteristics and frequency calculation of daily maximum precipitation on friendship farm Abstract:: Trend analysis, Mann-Kendall mutation analysis, CV value calculation, frequency analysis and calculation, and the mean of variation interval were used to analyze the change of precipitation in friendship farm during 1981-2010 years. The results show that: on time, the annual maximum daily precipitation series of friendship farm is not obvious in time. And taking 6, 7, 8, September as a special month, and there are different trends in the time series. There are fluctuations in 6, 7, 8, and September cycles, and the variation trend of the whole friendship farms precipitation series is not obvious in time. But in the time series, it showed a trend of sudden change, that is, it began to decline in 1998, and began to rise in 2009, and there was the same fluctuation state as the main cycle of each administrative division. Through CV calculation, we can also find that the variation degree of 6, 7, 8, September is greater than that of daily maximum daily precipitation, especially in July. The daily maximum frequency analysis {20%, 50%, 75%} and calculation indicated that the fr