定量火灾风险评估.ppt

? ? For example, NFPA statistics show that, based on the 1989 – 1998 data, the reduction in deaths in apartment buildings with sprinklers is 81% when compared with similar buildings without sprinklers (Kimberly and Hall, 2005). The residual consequence multiplier of a sprinkler system therefore is 0.19. That is, the consequence of installing a sprinkler system is the reduction of the death rate per fire to 0.19 of its inherent value. ? If no such information is available, then subjective judgment may be required. For example, there is no statistical information that can be easily found on the death reduction benefit of implementing a ‘regular evacuation drills' plan. Without such statistical information, we have to make an assumption again. ? Let us assume for this example that the residual consequence multiplier of a ‘regular evacuation drills' plan is 0.40. That is, the consequence of a ‘regular evacuation drills' plan is the reduction of the death rate per fire to 0.40 of its inherent value. ? This residual consequence multiplier for each scenario is shown in Figure 5.1. For example, Scenario B has a residual consequence multiplier of 0.40, which is the product of 1.00 (residual consequence multiplier of a failed sprinkler system) × 0.40 (residual consequence multiplier of a successful ‘regular evacuation drills' plan). ? ? The multiplication of the residual factors is based on the argument that each fire protection measure reduces the residual death rate by a certain percentage in succession. The death rate is first reduced by the sprinklers suppressing the severity of the fires, and then further reduced by faster evacuation of the occupants. ? ? ? ? The reduction of the risk values of the six combinations of additional fire protection measures is shown in Table 5.2. The residual risk multiplication factors range from 0.88 to 0.20. The quantification of the risk values allows numerical comparisons of the various fire