北京市可吸入颗粒物对人体健康损失评估.docVIP

PAGE 14 目 录 TOC \o 1-2 \h \z \u 1 导 论 1 1.1 选题背景 1 1.2 研究意义 1 1.3 论文结构与主要内容 2 1.4 论文的研究方法 2 2 国内外文献综述与相关理论 3 2.1 国内外文献综述 3 2.2 健康损失评价相关理论 4 3 北京市可吸入颗粒物对健康损失分析方法 5 3.1 北京2018年可吸入颗粒物污染现状分析 5 3.2 大气可吸入颗粒物对人体健康的危害 5 3.3 剂量-反应法 6 4 北京市可吸入颗粒物剂量对健康损失评估 7 4.1 参考浓度的选择 7 4.2 剂量反应系数βi的确定 7 4.3 心脑血管、呼吸道疾病问诊量及过早死亡量 7 4.4 健康损失估算 8 5 结论与政策建议 11 5.1 结论 11 5.2 政策建议 11 参考文献 12 致 谢 13 摘 要 可吸入颗粒物是重要的城市大气污染物，已被流行病研究结果充分证实会对人体健康产生严重危害。但我国相关研究开始较晚，针对大气可吸入颗粒物对人体健康产生的损害缺少科学合理的评估，且难以进行有效的货币化计量，这导致大众对可吸入颗粒物造成的健康损失认知不足。在此背景下，对可吸入颗粒物给人体健康造成的损失进行货币化评估，有助于公众直观地认识大气污染危害的严重性，亦可为政府空气污染治理政策的效果评估提供价值参考。本文选取2018年北京市大气可吸入颗粒物数据，利用剂量-反应模型，对城市中可吸入颗粒物对健康的损害进行货币化的估量，更加明确城市中可吸入颗粒物的污染对人体健康带来的经济损失大小。研究发现，2018年北京市可吸入颗粒物造成的健康损失共计76858.25万元，研究结果可为公众认知可吸入颗粒物对健康的危害和地方政府应对大气污染提供一定的参考。 关键词：可吸入颗粒物；剂量-反应模型；人力资本法；北京市 Abstract Inhalable particulate matter pollution is an important urban air pollutant, which has been fully confirmed by the results of epidemiological studies to cause serious harm to human health. However, the relevant research in China started late, for the damage caused by Atmospheric Inhalable Particles to human health, there is a lack of scientific and reasonable assessment, and it is difficult to carry out effective monetary measurement, which leads to the lack of public awareness of the health loss caused by inhalable particles. In this context, the monetary assessment of the loss of human health caused by inhalable particles will help the public to understand the severity of the air pollution hazards directly, and also provide valuable reference for the assessment of the effect of the governments air pollution control policies. In this paper, the dose-response model is used to select the data of air inhalable particulate matter in Beijing in 2018 to estimate the harm of urban inhalable particulate matter to human health in a monetary way, so as to make more clearly the economic loss of urban inhalable particulate matter pollution