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Team # 32722 Page 1 of 37
Turning the Tab : Modeling the Fight against Ebola
Team 32722
Abstract
We h e constructed a multi-layer state-based model that appears to hold promise for
providing insight into not only how the Ebola outbreak in West Africa will continue to de-
velop, but also the best cour f intervention in the event an effective vaccine or cure should
be created. This model considers a large number of parameters thought to be important to
or characteristic of the outbreak, including the impact of the infection’s unique progression
in humans, transmission to new individuals from infected persons at different stages of the
infection, and the effects of geographic connections on the movement of infected persons and
pharmaceuticals.
The aforementioned multi-layer approach includes interactions on the level of the individ-
ual, a collection of individuals (or “region”), and a collection of regions, in order to capture
beh iors at each scale. Individuals transition through states, representing the various stages
of an Ebola infection, in a stochastic way with some probabilities being intrinsic to the illness
and some being related to the current state-of-affairs in the region.
Individua re treated as homogeneously mixed within regions, but are capable of moving
between regions with probabilities determined by the various characteristics of each region.
Distribution of medicines occurs at the local level through hospita nd at the regional
levels through transit, with medicines and vaccines entering the simulation through defined
transportation “hubs”, then being distributed along defined delivery routes from region to
region.
Our model focuses exclusively on the three countries still suffering from an active presence
of Ebola (Guinea, Liber
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