走向南苏丹的美好未来.docxVIP

Table of Contents Executive Summary i Introduction 1 Tortured History, Troubled Present 3 Decades of Cleavages 5 Pre-independence Inclusion, Post-independence Exclusion 7 A Shaky Peace 8 Shattered Country, Shattered Plans 9 Fighting Fires. 11 Preventing Another Collapse 11 Silencing the Other Guns 12 Elections: Hurdle, Not Finish Line 15 Risks Inherent in an Election 15 Averting the Loser-Loses-All Scenario 17 The Long Term: Beyond Kiir and Machar 19 Sharing the Centre 20 Decentralising the State 22 From Here to There: An Unclear Road Ahead 24 Conclusion 26 APP