处理缺失数据的短时交通流预测模型-2019年文档.docx

处理缺失数据的短时交通流预测模型 Short-term traffic flow forecasting model under missing data XU Jian-rui1,2,LI Xing-yi1, SHI Hua-ji1 1. School of Computer Science and Telecommunication Engineering, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang Jiangsu 212013, China; 2. Information Center, Zhenjiang Electrical and Mechanical Higher Vocational Technical School, Zhenjiang Jiangsu 212016, China In view of missing data issue of traffic detection, this paper proposed a kind of new short-term traffic flow composite forecasting model. The model adopts imputation method to solve the missing data problem, and uses improved Kalman smoothing to implement short-term traffic flow forecasting. The model resolved the defeats of traditional forecasting methods which cannot deal with the missing data, and also can attain a high forecasting precision. Through the validation of Shenzhen data and compared with the traditional methods, the new model has been proved that it has high forecasting precision, the forecasting result can maintain at 88% or more, and the model also has good practicality. In view of missing data issue of traffic detection, this paper proposed a newshort-term traffic flow composite forecasting model. The model adopted reconstruction method to solve the missing data problem, and used improved Kalman smoothing to implement short-term traffic flow forecasting. forecastingThe model resolved the defeats of traditional methods which cannot deal with the missing data, and also can attain a high forecasting precision. Through the validation of Shenzhen data and being compared with the traditional methods, it has been proved that the new method has high forecasting precision, the forecasting result can maintain at 88% or more, and the model also has good practicality. forecasting data missing; traffic flow; wavelet de-noising; Kalman smooth filtering; short-term forecasting 0 引言 交通检测数据在交通规划、设计、控制、组织和管理等领域 得到广泛应用 , 然而, 检测数据的缺失将导致数据分析变得异常 困难。文献[1]在运用季节ARIMA模型和指数平滑模型进行短时 交通流预测研究过程中发现有大约 20%的检测数据存在缺失。在 加拿大亚