全球不平衡、美国金融危机和国际货币体系改革.pptx

全球不平衡、美国金融危机和国际货币体系改革;全球不平衡（global imbalances)：基本概念和关系式;全球不平衡: 美国的经常项目逆差vis-à-vis 亚洲和石油输出国，特别是中国的经常项目顺差;美国经常项目逆差和净外债/GDP比;全球不平衡的可持续性;美国经常项目逆差和净外债的增长;1.NIIP status quo: current account deficit at 1.5 percent of GDP,NIIP ratio 25 percent of GDP 2.Current account status quo: the current account deficit at about 5 percent of GDP, the NIIP would stabilize at 83 percent of GDP 3.Productivity view: current account deficit at 4 percent of GDP, which would imply a NIIP of 67 percent. 4.Global wealth view: a current account deficit narrowing to about 3 percent of GDP, NIIP at about 50 percent of GDP. 5. Issing view: current account deficit has to shrink to 2 percent of GDP, implying an NIIP of 33 percent. 6. Zero trade deficit: The logic of the primary-deficit/-surplus approach implies that the United States will eventually have to reduce its deficit on goods and services to zero. Net lending to the United States would be limited to the amount sufficient to cover net income payments (currently approximately zero) and net transfer payments (currently approximately half a percent of GDP). With a current account deficit 0.5 percent of GDP, the implied NIIP would shrink to 8 percent of GDP. ;;美国可以承受多高的净外债-GDP比？净外债/GDP比的国际经验;贸易顺差国是否会继续为美国逆差融资？;经济增长与国际收支结构的变化;日本的国际收支 ;泰国国际收支;韩国国际收支;马来西亚的国际收支（1974-2004） ;印度尼西亚国际收支;除1993年经常项目逆差（经济过热），1998年资本项目逆差（资本外逃）外，20年来中国始终是双顺差。2005年后经常项目顺差保持在2000-3000亿美元左右，资本项目顺差500-600亿美元左右。;理论和经验的一致与矛盾;But the enterprise saving rate is still very high. Will this rate fell as a result of improvement of the economy?政府贡献为负 ;石油输出国：将随价格变动而变动;全球不平衡纠正及其可能产生的后果;危机终于发生，但方式出人意料;金融危机发生的原因;金融危机与全球不平衡问题;;国际货币体系;布雷顿森林体系的最根本问题：Triffin-dilemma;后布雷顿森林体系;“布雷顿森林体系2”;中国应对国际货币体系改革持何种态度;持有美元外汇储备的问题;中国应该怎么办？;如何应对存量问题;Stiglitz Proposal;全球储备基金;关于国际货币体系改革