浅谈人民币升值对我国出口贸易的影响及对策探讨.docVIP

PAGE PAGE 20 浅谈人民币升值对我国出口贸易的影响及对策探讨 摘要：2005年7月以来,我国开始实行以市场供求为基础,与此同时参考一篮子货币进行调节而且有管理的浮动汇率制度,于是人民币升值成了一个经济热点问题。这次人民币汇率制度改革之后，人民币一直呈现升值的趋势，进一步导致我国外汇储备的快速增长，通货膨胀压力进一步上升，人民币的升值预期被不断放大。到2008年底，外汇储备资产与上年末相比增加了4178亿美元，即19460亿美元，我国毫无疑问成为世界上最大的外汇储备国。对外贸易的快速发展，使得我国累积了大量的贸易顺差以及外汇储备,我国由此面临着巨大的人民币升值压力。 本文通过回顾人民币汇率制度的改革进程和出口贸易额变化趋势，进一步剖析人民币的升值原因，并深层次揭露人民币升值对我国出口贸易的积极和消极影响，尤其是对我国主要出口行业的影响，从而对于我国面对人民币不断升值背景下对外贸易政策调整展开进一步的研究,然后从政府和企业两个角度提出应对人民币升值所造成的负面影响的政策建议。 关键词：人民币升值出口贸易影响分析策略建议 Abstract： Since July 2005, China began to implement a market-based, simultaneous with reference to a basket of currencies and managed floating exchange rate regime, thus the RMB appreciation has become one of the hottest issues of economic. Since the reform of RMB exchange rate regime, the RMB appreciation trend continues, and then the rapid growth of Chinas foreign exchange reserves, making the inflation pressure rises, and the RMB appreciation is expected to continue to increase. By the end of 2008, foreign currency reserve assets increased by $ 417.8 billion compared with last year, reaching $ 1.946 trillion, we has owned largest foreign exchange reserves. The rapid development of Chinas export trade makes our country face enormous pressure of RMB appreciation. By means of reviewing the current situation of the RMB exchange rate reform process and the amount of export trade, This paper analyzes the reasons for RMB appreciation in recent years, and reveal the positive and negative effects of RMB appreciation on Chinas import and export trade, especially on Chinas main export industry. Research has been done to the adjustment of Chinas trade policy , then we make policy recommendations from the perspective of government and company to deal with the effectt of the RMB appreciation. Keywords: RMB appreciation effect strategy export trade 引言 1994年起，我国开始实行浮动汇率制。1994年到如今，人民币对美元汇率整体呈下降趋势。2005年是汇率改革的一个重要转折点和关键点。从1994年开始，人民币对美元汇率开始呈现下降趋势。直到1997年，汇率才得以保持基本稳定，这跟亚洲金融危机的爆发以及我国主动缩小汇率浮动的范围有直接关系。2005年开始，我国政府完善了汇率制度