行为金融学5课后习题答案.docVIP

PAGE 3 | Page PAGE ?2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly available website, in whole or in part. CHAPTER 5: Discussion Questions and Problems 1. Differentiate the following terms/concepts: Primacy and recency effects A primacy effect is the tendency to rely on information that comes first when making an assessment, whereas a recency effect is the tendency to rely on the most recent information when making an assessment. Salience and availability The salience of an event refers to how much it stands out relative to other events, whereas the availability refers to how easily the event is recalled from memory. Fast-and-frugal heuristics and bias-generating heuristics Fast and frugal heuristics require a minimum of time, knowledge and computation in order to make choices. Often they lead to very good choices. Sometimes however heuristics go astray and generate behavioral bias. Autonomic and cognitive heuristics Autonomic heuristics are reflexive, autonomic, non-cognitive, and require low effort levels. Cognitive heuristics require more deliberation. Autonomic heuristics are appropriate when a very quick decision must be made or when the stakes are low, whereas cognitive heuristics are appropriate when the stakes are higher. 2. Which description of Mary has higher probability? a. Mary loves to play tennis. b. Mary loves to play tennis and, during the summer, averages at least a game a week. Explain your answer. Define the conjunction fallacy. How does it apply here? Assume for the purpose of illustration that the probability that someone loves to play tennis is .2; the probability that someone plays tennis once or more a week during the summer is .1; and the probability of one or the other of these things is .22. Pr(loves tennis) = .2 Pr(loves tennis AND averages 1+) = Pr(loves tennis) + Pr(averages 1+) - Pr(loves tennis OR averages 1+)