行为金融学6课后习题答案.docVIP

PAGE 2 | Page PAGE ?2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly available website, in whole or in part. CHAPTER 6: Discussion Questions and Problems Differentiate the following terms/concepts: Miscalibration and excessive optimism A person who suffers from miscalibration overestimates the precision of his knowledge, whereas one who suffers from excessive optimism thinks good things (e.g., succeeding in a business venture) are more likely to happen than objectively should be thought. Better-than-average effect and illusion of control The better-than-average effect refers to the tendency for a person to rate himself as above average. If you are subject to illusion of control, this indicates a tendency to think that you have more control over events than can objectively be true. Self-attribution bias and confirmation bias Self-attribution bias is the tendency to attribute successes to one’s own abilities, while blaming failures on circumstances beyond one’s control. Confirmation bias is the tendency to search out evidence consistent with prior beliefs and ignore conflicting data. Pros and cons of overconfidence Research shows that predictions about the future tend to be more optimistic when the event forecasted is in the more distant future or when a person has committed to a course of action. When these conditions are met, excessive optimism may be useful in enhancing performance. Otherwise, it can lead to biased decision-making. Is miscalibration greater for easy questions or hard questions? Is it greater when we look at 50% confidence ranges or 98% confidence ranges? Miscalibration tends to be greater for hard questions. Sometimes one can even be underconfident in the case of easy questions. This is called the hard-easy effect. Also, miscalibration tends to be greater in the tails (98% ranges vs. 50% ranges). Provide an example where someone can be both excessively opti