【IMF】双边贸易失衡Bilateral Trade Imbalances（英）.pdfVIP

Bilateral Trade Imbalances Alejandro Cuñat and Robert Zymek WP/22/90 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2022 MAY © 2022 International Monetary Fund WP/22/90 IMF Working Paper African Department Bilateral Trade Imbalances Prepared by Alejandro Cuñat and Robert Zymek* Authorized for distribution by Sonali Jain-Chandra and Niko Hobdari May 2022 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: If sectoral trade flows obey structural gravity, countries bilateral trade imbalances are the result of macro trade imbalances, “triangular trade”, or pairwise asymmetric trade barriers. Using data for 40 major economies and the Rest of the World, we show that large and pervasive asymmetries in trade barriers are required to account for most of the observed variation in bilateral imbalances. A dynamic quantitative trade model suggests that eliminating these asymmetries would significantly reduce bilateral (but not macro) imbalances and have sizeable impacts on welfare. We provide evidence that the asymmetries we measure are in part related to the policy environme