理查德·蔡斯：运作管理——供应链管理的视角（精要版第3版）Chap004.pptVIP

Determining Capacity Requirements Step 3: Project equipment and labor availabilities Year 1 2 3 4 5 Plastic Bag Operation Percentage capacity utilized 24 48 72 84 94 Machine requirement 1.2 2.4 3.6 4.2 4.7 Labor requirement 3.6 7.2 10.8 12.6 14.1 Bottle Operation Percentage capacity utilized 30 41 54 66 77 Machine requirement 0.9 1.23 1.62 1.98 2.31 Labor requirement 1.8 2.46 3.24 3.96 4.62 Excel: Capacity Requirements Decision Trees for Capacity Analysis A decision tree is a schematic model of the sequence of steps in a problem – including the conditions and consequences of each step Decision trees help analysts understand the problem and assist in identifying the best solution Decision tree components Decision nodes – represented with squares Chance nodes – represented with circles Paths– links between nodes Example 3.2 The owner of Hackers Computer Store is evaluating three options – expand at current site, expand to a new site, do nothing The decision process includes the following assumptions and conditions Strong growth has a 55% probability New site cost is $210,000 Payoffs: Strong growth = $195,000, Weak growth = $115,000 Expanding current site cost is $87,000 (in either year 1 or 2) Payoffs: Strong growth = $190,000, Weak growth = $100,000 Do nothing Payoffs: Strong growth = $170,000, Weak growth = $105,000 Example 3.2 Calculate the value of each alternative Example 3.2 Diagram the problem chronologically Decision Events Decision Example 3.2 Calculate value of each branch $765,000 $365,000 $863,000 $413,000 $843,000 $850,000 $525,000 Example 3.2 Work backwards to calculate the value of each decision/event $765,000 $365,000 $863,000 $413,000 $843,000 $850,000 $525,000 $660,500 $703,750 Do nothing = $850,000 Do nothing = $703,750 Do nothing has higher value than expand, so choose to do nothing Do nothing has higher value than expand or move, so choose to do nothing Example 3.2 Decision tree analysis with net present value calculations Excel: Decision Tree