IMF-评估供应中断对全球大流行性复苏的影响（英）-2023.2-42页.pdfVIP

Assessing the Impact of Supply Disruptions on the Global Pandemic Recovery Prepared by Harri Kemp, Rafael Portillo, and Marika Santoro WP/23/42 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2023 FEB © 2023 International Monetary Fund WP/23/42 IMF Working Paper Research Department Assessing the Impact of Supply Disruptions on the Global Pandemic Recovery Prepared by Harri Kemp, Rafael Portillo, and Marika Santoro Authorized for distribution by Benjamin Hunt February 2023 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: We estimate the role of (pre-Ukraine war) supply disruptions in constraining the Covid-19 pandemic recovery, for several advanced economies and emerging markets, and globally. We rely on two approaches. In the first approach, we use sign-restricted Vector Auto Regressions (SVAR) to identify supply and demand shocks in manufacturing, based on the co-movement of surveys on new orders and suppliers’ delivery times. The effects of these shocks on industrial production and GDP are recovered through a combination of local projection methods and the input-output framework in Acemoglu et al. (2016). In the second approach, we use the IMF’s G20 model to gaug