IMF-用于综合政策分析的DSGE估计模型（英）-2023.6-65页.docx

An Estimated DSGE Model for Integrated Policy Analysis Kaili Chen, Marcin Kolasa, Jesper Linde, Hou Wang, Pawel Zabczyk, and Jianping Zhou WP/23/135 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2023 JUN * The authors would like to thank seminar participants at the IMF for very valuable discussions and comments. A special thank you to Atet Wijoseno at the Bank of Indonesia who contributed strongly to an earlier version of the model. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management. ? 2023 International Monetary Fund WP/23/135 IMF Working Paper Monetary and Capital Markets Department An Estimated DSGE Model for Integrated Policy Analysis Prepared by Kaili Chen, Marcin Kolasa, Jesper Lindé , Hou Wang, Pawel Zabczyk, Jianping Zhou Authorized for distribution by Jesper Lindé June 2023 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: We estimate a New Keynesian small open economy model which allows for foreign exchange (FX) market frictions and a potential role for FX interventions for a large set of emerging market economies (EMEs) and some inflation targeting (IT) advanced economy (AE) countries serving as a control group. Next, we use the estimated model to examine the empirical support for the view that interest rate policy may not be sufficient to stabilize output and inflation following capital outflow shocks, and the extent to which FX interventions (FXI) c