专题04 阅读理解D篇（说明文）-2023年高考英语真题题源解密（新高考卷）（原题版）.docx

专题04阅读理解D篇（说明文）

（2023·新高考卷I阅读理解D篇）

OnMarch7,1907,theEnglishstatisticianFrancisGaltonpublishedapaperwhichillustratedwhathascometobeknownasthe“wisdomofcrowds”effect.Theexperimentofestimationheconductedshowedthatinsomecases,theaverageofalargenumberofindependentestimatescouldbequiteaccurate.

Thiseffectcapitalizesonthefactthatwhenpeoplemakeerrors,thoseerrorsaren’talwaysthesame.Somepeoplewilltendtooverestimate,andsometounderestimate.Whenenoughoftheseerrorsareaveragedtogether,theycanceleachotherout,resultinginamoreaccurateestimate.Ifpeoplearesimilarandtendtomakethesameerrors,thentheirerrorswon’tcanceleachotherout.Inmoretechnicalterms,thewisdomofcrowdsrequiresthatpeople’sestimatesbeindependent.Ifforwhateverreasons,people’serrorsbecomecorrelatedordependent,theaccuracyoftheestimatewillgodown.

ButanewstudyledbyJoaquinNavajasofferedaninterestingtwist(转折)onthisclassicphenomenon.Thekeyfindingofthestudywasthatwhencrowdswerefurtherdividedintosmallergroupsthatwereallowedtohaveadiscussion,theaveragesfromthesegroupsweremoreaccuratethanthosefromanequalnumberofindependentindividuals.Forinstance,theaverageobtainedfromtheestimatesoffourdiscussiongroupsoffivewassignificantlymoreaccuratethantheaverageobtainedfrom20independentindividuals.

Inafollow-upstudywith100universitystudents,theresearcherstriedtogetabettersenseofwhatthegroupmembersactuallydidintheirdiscussion.Didtheytendtogowiththosemostconfidentabouttheirestimates?Didtheyfollowthoseleastwillingtochangetheirminds?Thishappenedsomeofthetime,butitwasn’tthedominantresponse.Mostfrequently,thegroupsreportedthatthey“sharedargumentsandreasonedtogether.”Somehow,theseargumentsandreasoningresultedinaglobalreductioninerror.Althoughthestu