bis -Fiscal sources of inflation risk in EMDEs - the role of the external channel-此为英文文档.docx
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BISWorkingPapersNo1110
FiscalsourcesofinflationriskinEMDEs:theroleoftheexternalchannel
byRyanBanerjee,ValerieBoctor,AaronMehrotraandFabrizioZampolli
MonetaryandEconomicDepartment
July2023
JELclassification:E31;E52;E62;E63.
Keywords:Fiscaldeficit,inflation,exchangeratedepreciation,sovereignrisk,emergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies,originalsin,inflationtargeting.
ThispaperwasproducedaspartoftheBISConsultativeCouncilfortheAmericas(CCA)researchconferenceonStructuralchangesininflationandoutputdynamicsafterCovidandothershocks,heldinMexicoCityon17–18November2022.BISWorkingPapersarewrittenbymembersoftheMonetaryandEconomicDepartmentoftheBankforInternationalSettlements,andfromtimetotimebyothereconomists,andarepublishedbytheBank.Thepapersareonsubjectsoftopicalinterestandaretechnicalincharacter.TheviewsexpressedinthemarethoseoftheirauthorsandnotnecessarilytheviewsoftheBIS.
ThispublicationisavailableontheBISwebsite().
?BankforInternationalSettlements2023.Allrightsreserved.Briefexcerptsmaybereproducedortranslatedprovidedthesourceisstated.
ISSN1020-0959(print)
ISSN1682-7678(online)
FiscalsourcesofinflationriskinEMDEs:theroleoftheexternalchannel*
RyanBanerjeetValerieBoctor?AaronMehrotra§FabrizioZampolli?
June14,2023
Abstract
Weexaminehowchangesinfiscaldeficitsaffectnear-termfutureinflationinapanelofemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies(EMDEs).Usinganovelmethodforquantilepanelregressionswithfixedeffects,wefindthatanincreaseinthefiscaldeficithashighlynon-lineareffectsoninflation-thatis,alargerimpactonupsidetailrisksthanonaverageinflation.TheseeffectsaresubstantiallylargerinEMDEsthaninadvancedeconomies.Wethenshowthatanincreaseinthefiscaldeficitraisestheriskoffuturecurr
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