研究生新世纪综合英语unit2.pdfVIP

不飞则已，一飞冲天；不鸣则已，一鸣惊人。——《韩非子》

Unit2

TheNewEconomicsOfOil

Crude-oilpriceshavebeencareeninglikesteelballs

inapinballmachinethisautumninresponsetonewsandr

umorsfromthemiddleeast.InthefirstfewdaysofOctobe

r,thetreatofarmedconflictbetweenIranandIrapsentc

rudpricessoaringfrom$20abarreltoalmost$23,before

singkingbackdownagain.

Evenastheworldisremindedofthevulnerabilityof

itsoilsupply,consumptionissoaring.Americanshavefal

leninlovewithgasguzzlerssuchastheFordExpedition.

Innewlyp-rosperousdeyelopingcouties,ordinarypeople

canaffordcarsforthefirsttime.Arecentsurveyinthe

ChinaYouthDailyfoundthat75%ofBeijingfamiliesplanne

dtobuyacarinthenextfiveyears.

Yikes.Areweinforanotheroilcrisis?Youmightthi

nkso.FortWorthinvestorRichard.E.rainwaterhas30%ofh

is$1.5billionnetworthsunkinoilandgasinvestmentsb

ecauseheexpectstorise50%to75%inthenext5to10yea

rs.Withfreemarketsfuelingeconomicgrowth,saysrainwa

ter,”weshouldseeatremendousamountofpressureonpr

ices.”

Perhaps,butthereisanother,quitedifferentscenario-

--namely,thatoilprices,adjustedforinflation,won’tr

iseatalloverthelongterm.Theymayevenfall.why?Be

causeproducersintheMideastandelsewhereneedthecash

fromoiltoomuchtolettheirsupplybeinterruptedfor

long,Despitepoliticalandmilitaryskirmishing.Second,

andmoreinportant,becausedemandgroethcan’tpushpric

esupwardaslongasitisbalancedbysupplygrowth