《公司金融》7 风险分析、实物期权和资本预算-英文教学课件（非AI生成）.ppt

RiskAnalysis,RealOptions,andCapitalBudgetingChapter7

NPVanalysis：afalsesenseofsecurityTheprojectedcashflowoftengoesunmetinpractice,andthefirmendsupwithamoneyloser.whatcompaniescandotoanalyzeandpossiblyavoidthesesituations?

KeyConceptsandSkillsUnderstandandbeabletoapplysensitivityandscenarioanalysisUnderstandthevariousformsofbreak-evenanalysisUnderstandMonteCarlosimulationUnderstandtheimportanceofrealoptionsincapitalbudgetingUnderstanddecisiontrees

7.1Sensitivity,Scenario,andBreak-EvenEachallowsustolookbehindtheNPVnumbertoseehowstableourestimatesare.WhenworkingwithEXCEL,trytobuildyourmodelsothatyoucanadjustvariablesinasinglecellandhavetheNPVcalculationsupdateaccordingly.

Example:asolarpoweredjetengine(SEC)

SensitivityAnalysisExamineshowsensitiveaparticularNPVcalculationistochangesinunderlyingassumptions.Sensitivityanalysisisalsoknownaswhat-ifanalysisandbop(best,optimistic,andpessimistic)analysis.checkouttheproject’sunderlyingassumptionsaboutrevenuesandcosts.callsforanNPVcalculationforallthreepossibilitiesofasinglevariable,alongwiththeexpectedforecastforallothervariables.

underlyingassumptionsaboutrevenuesTherevenueestimatesdependonthreeassumptions:1.Marketshare.2.Sizeofjetenginemarket.3.Priceperengine.

underlyingassumptionsaboutcost

SensitivityAnalysis

SensitivityAnalysisCanindicatewhetherNPVanalysisshouldbetrusted.Showswheremoreinformationisneeded.However,Treatseachvariableinisolationwhen,inreality,thedifferentvariablesarelikelytoberelated.

ScenarioAnalysisAvariantofsensitivityanalysis

Break-EvenAnalysisAnotherwaytoexaminevariabilityinourforecastsisbreak-evenanalysis.Therearetwocommonbreak-evenmeasuresAccountingProfitbreak-evenPointPresentValuebreak-evenPoint

7.2MonteCarloSimulationMonteCarlosimulationisafur