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PolicyResearchWorkingPaper11116
LaborMarketScarringinaDevelopingEconomy
StigmaversusLostHumanCapitalfromPlantClosings
inMexico
FranciscoJ.AriasDanielLederman
WORLDBANKGROUP
ProsperityVerticalVicePresidencyMay2025
PolicyResearchWorkingPaper11116
Abstract
Thispaperestimatesthemagnitudeoflabormarketscar–ringinadevelopingeconomy,asettingthathasbeenunderstudiedbythelaborscarringliteraturedominatedbyadvancedeconomies.Thepaperassessesthecontribu–tionsof“stigma”versus“losthumancapital,”whichcauseearningslossesamongdisplacedworkersrelativetonon–dis–placedworkers.Thefindingsindicatethatjobseparationscausedbyplantclosingsresultinsizableandlong–lastingreductionsinearnings,withanaveragedeclineof7.5per–centinhourlywagesoveranine–yearperiod.Theestimateforoneyearafteraplantclosingislarger,atadeclineof10.8percent.Inacommonsample,aftercontrollingfor
unobserved,time–invariantindividualcharacteristics,theimpactofaplantclosingdeclinesfrom11.9to8.2percent.Theseresultsimplythatstigmainthelabormarketduetoimperfectinformationaboutworkers(capturedbyunob–servableworkercharacteristics)accountsfor30.8percentoftheaverageearningslosses,whereaslostemployer–specifichumancapitalexplainstheremaining69.2percent.Thepaperexplorestheeffectsofjobseparationsduetoplantclosingsonotherlabormarketoutcomes,includinghoursworkedandinformality,andprovidesestimatesacrossgen–dersandlevelsofeducation.
ThispaperisaproductoftheProsperityVerticalVicePresidency.ItispartofalargereffortbytheWorldBanktoprovideopenaccesstoitsresearchandmakeacontributiontodevelopmentpolicydiscussionsaroundtheworld.Policy
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