20250520Jefferies拉美石油从清算到复苏462mb.docxVIP

LatinAmerica|Energy

EquityResearch

May20,2025

Reflectingmacroheadwinds,wereviseour2025-26BrentoilpricedecktoUS$65/bblandkeepourLTassumptionunchangedatUS$70/bbl.Thisleadstoac9%avgreductioninour2025-27EBITDAestsforLatAmOils.WithLatAmOilsdownc25%LTM,trailingglobalpeersoilprices,weseethemarketunderestimatingthegroup’sabilitytoweatherlowerpricesthroughcost-cuttingandefficiencygains.OurLatAmOilstoppicksremainPBR,Vista,YPF,allBuyrated.

KEYSTOCKSFEATUREDINCLUDE:

TICKER

RATING

PRICETARGET

PBR

BUY

$15.30

VIST

BUY

$71.00

GPRK

BUY

$10.50

CNECN

HOLD

C$3.25

PXTCN

HOLD

C$14.70

MovingJEF’soilpricedeckclosertothe2025-26strip.WithrisingOPEC+productionanduncertainglobaldemandgrowth,weseeriskforoversupplyintheoilmarketemergingfrom4Q25andinto2026.Asaresult,welowerourBrentoilassumptionsfor2025-26toUS$65/bbl,relativelyin-linewiththecurrentstrip,whileleavingourLTassumptionunchangedatUS$70/bblfrom2027.

LatAmOils:FromReckoningtoResilience…Againstabackdropofloweroilprices,weseeLatAmOils’competitivecoststructuresaskeydifferentiators–forinstanceBrazil’spre-saltliftingcostissomeUS$7/bblandArgentina’sshaleoilisaroundUS$5/bbl.Wenotethatincontrastwithpreviouscyclicaldropsinoilprices(2008,2014,2020)thesectorfeaturesmuchstrongerbalancesheets,whichshouldhelpitweatherthesituation.WeseeLatAmOilsremaininglargelyFCFpositive(pre-dividends)throughUS$50/bblBrentwithArgentineshaleplayersneedingUS$60/bbltobeFCFneutralandPBRstayingFCFpositivetoUS$45/bblthankstoitshighmarginpre-saltoilfieldsand

KEYCHANGESINCLUDE:

TICKER RATING PRICETARGETVISTBUY$71.00($75.00)GPRKBUY$10.50($12.00)CNE

TICKER RATING PRICETARGET

VIST

BUY

$71.00($75.00)

GPRK

BUY

$10.50($12.00)

CNECN

HOLD

C$3.25(C$5.50)

PXTCN

HOLD

C$14.70(C$17.60)

resilientdownstreamearni