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欧洲央行-地缘经济碎片化带来的金融稳定风险（英）-2026.1.pdfVIP

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  • 2026-02-06 发布于内蒙古
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欧洲央行-地缘经济碎片化带来的金融稳定风险（英）-2026.1.pdf

    Financialstabilityrisksfromgeoeconomic

    fragmentation

    January2026

    ECB/ESRBworkstreamonfinancialstabilityrisksfromgeoeconomicfragmentation

    Contents

    Executivesummary2

    1Introduction6

    2Aframeworkforassessinggeopoliticalriskstofinancialstability7

    3AssessinggeopoliticalriskstoEUcountries11

    3.1Classificationofgeopoliticalriskindicators11

    Box1Geopoliticalrisk:fromUS-centricindicestoeuroareatools16

    3.2Selectionofinformativeindicators18

    Box2Recommendedindicatorsforgeopoliticalrisksanalysis19

    3.3Currentstateofgeopoliticalrisks22

    4Transmissionofgeopoliticalrisk26

    4.1Macro-financialtransmissionofgeopoliticalrisk26

    4.2Tailriskstomacro-financialconditionsintheEU35

    4.3EUcountryfindings49

    5Financialmarketimpactofgeopoliticalrisks53

    5.1Geopoliticalriskandfinancialmarketspillovers53

    5.2EUfinancialmarketreactiontoUSpoliticalriskshocks58

    6Impactofgeopoliticalriskoneuroareafinancialinstitutions62

    6.1ImpactoftheRussianinvasionofUkraineoneuroareabanks62

    6.2USeconomicpolicyuncertaintyandeuroareabanklendi

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