未来矿业：化解负债压力，把握可持续转型机遇.docxVIP

Miningforthefuture:Addressing

liabilitiesandunlockingsustainabletransitionopportunities

25February2026

2

Content

Page3

ExecutiveSummary

8

Whythetransitiondependsonminingdoneright

18

Thesustainabilitybottleneck:Thesocial

licensetodeplete,environmentallimitsandprojectdisruptionrisk

21

Thetrillion-dollarbuildout:Capitalneedsacrossmining,processingandcircularity

24

Fromliabilitiestolegitimacy:Miningdoneright

27

Sustainableminingisnotoptional-itisessential

3

25February2026

Executive

Summary

MarkusZimmer

SeniorEconomist,ESG

markus.zimmer@

JasminGr?schl

SeniorEconomistforEurope

jasmin.groeschl@

ImkeHorten

SustainableInvestingAssociate

Imke.horten@

HazemKrichene

SeniorEconomist,Climate

hazem.krichene@

AnoKuhanathan

HeadofCorporateResearch

ano.kuhanathan@

PatrickPeura

HeadofInvestmentStewardshipandEngagement

patrick.peura@

KatharinaUtermoehl

HeadofThematicandPolicyResearch

katharina.utermoehl@

JadeElisabeth

ResearchAssistant

jade.elisabeth@

?Atwintransitionisdrivingasurgeinmineraldemandasdecarbonization

anddigitalizationarereshapingtheindustrialbasesimultaneously.Energy

systemsareshiftingtowardelectrification,renewables,storageandexpanded

grids,whileartificialintelligenceisdrivingheavyinvestmentsindatacentersandcomputinginfrastructure.Demandforcriticalmineralsissettoriseaccordingly.TheInternationalEnergyAgencyprojectsthatby2040lithiumdemandcouldincreasefivefold;graphiteandnickelmaydouble;cobaltandrareearthelementscouldriseby50–60%;andcopperdemandbyaround30%.Meetingthissurgewillrequirenotonlynewmines,butexpandedprocessingcapacity,infrastructureandskilledlabor.Meanwhiledata-centerelectricitydemandaloneisexpectedtomorethandoubleby2030,reinforcingthecaseforgridinvestmentandadditionalmaterials.

?Supplyisstrugglingtorespond.Althoughamorecircular