近30年我国自然灾害灾情时间分布特征分析.pdfVIP

近30年我国自然灾害灾情时间分布特征分析

袁艺;马玉玲

【摘要】利用民政部统计核定的1978-2009年全国年度灾情数据,以及国家统计

局发布的社会经济统计数据,从灾情指标的绝对量、相对量及其变异系数入手,分析

了我国自然灾害的年际、年代际趋势变化和波动变化特征.结果表明:近30年来,我

国自然灾害灾情年际和年代际变化趋势明显.总体上,死亡人口下降趋势明显,人口受

灾情况、农作物受灾情况和直接经济损失上升趋势明显,但相对直接经济损失下降

趋势明显,房屋倒塌比例也有所下降;1990年代,灾害造成的各项损失较之1980年

代增大趋势明显.我国自然灾害的影响范围趋于相对稳定,而灾害强度波动性较大,且

有增大趋势.灾情的趋势和波动变化特征,反映了全球气候变化下极端事件更加频发,

强度有所增加的趋势.灾情指标的大小与年度主要灾害类型以及重灾年份有

关.%MakinguseoftheyearlystatisticsofnaturaldisastersofChina

between1978and2009asarrangedandratifiedbytheMinistryofCivil

Affairs,andthesocio-economicstatisticsreleasedbytheNationalBureau

ofStatisticsofChina,theinterannualandinterdecadalvariation

characteristicsofnaturaldisastersinChinaintermsoftheabsolutevalues

andrelativevaluesofvariationindisasterlossdataandthefluctuation

featuresofdifferentindicatorsbyadoptingcoefficientsofvariationare

analyzed.Resultsindicatethat:theinterannualvariationofdifferent

disasterlossindicatorscausedbynaturaldisastersinChinasince1978is

remarkable;Overall,thenumberofdeathscausedbynaturaldisastershas

decreasedremarkably,thenumberofcollapsedanddamagedhouseshas

increasedslightly,whereasaconspicuousrisingtendencyhasbeen

witnessedintheothermajordisasterlossindicators;sincethe1980s,the

interdecadalvariationofdisasterlossindicatorscausedbynatural

disastersinChina,exceptnumberofdeathsandnumberofcollapsedand

damagedhouses,haveallwitnessedarisingtendency.Thereisarelatively

remarkableinterannualvariationandfluctuationintermsoftheintensity

ofnaturaldisasterlossesinChina,butthefluctuationoftheaffectedareas

ofnaturaldisastersisrelativelyslighter.Thesevariationsofdisasterloss

indicatorsaremainlyrelatedtothemaindisastertypesofeachyearand

whetherayearisamajordisasteryearornot.Alltheindicatorshaveshown

arisingtendency,exceptthe