[植物病害流行学For graduate students]epidemic-05.ppsVIP

Plant Disease Epidemiology --03-3 Disease Epidemic Epidemic: disease increase in a population Epidemic development is influenced by: Environmental factors Rate of pathogen reproduction Mode of pathogen dispersal Efficiency of pathogen survival Level of aggressiveness of the pathogen Level of host plant resistance What is epidemiology used for? 1 – Model disease progress A monocyclic pathogen completes just one disease cycle per season. There are no secondary disease cycles.Can you think of some examples of monocyclic pathogens? Soilborne pathogens are usually monocyclic due to physical constraints--inoculum is not dispersed within the growing season. Some rust and smut fungi are monocyclic because their life cycles take a full season to complete. Polycyclic pathogens have several secondary disease cycles each season. Disease increase in plant populations is sometimes compared to the increase of invested capital over time. Diseases caused by monocyclic pathogens are analogous to investment with simple interest; diseases caused by polycyclic pathogens are analogous to investment with compound interest. With simple interest, capital grows at a constant rate (the interest bearing capital remains unchanged) With compound interest, invested capital grows at an increasing rate over time as the earned interest is reinvested. The mathematical formula describing increase of capital at continuous compound interest is the same formula used in biology to describe exponential growth. The formula can also be applied to epidemics caused by polycyclic pathogens. Exponential Disease IncreaseCompound-interest DiseasePolycyclic Pathogen In reality, polycyclic diseases increase exponentially only during the very early stages of an epidemic ( 5% disease).Why do you think this is so? Reasons why disease does not increase exponentially for long: As the amount of healthy tissue becomes limiting, the rate of disease increase slows down. Infection occurs intermittently, not c