财务管理基础13版_14b课件.pptVIP

14b.* Van Horne and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. ? Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. Chapter 14 – Support Risk and Managerial (Real) Options in Capital Budgeting Remember? An Illustration of Total Risk (Discrete Distribution) ANNUAL CASH FLOWS: YEAR 1 PROPOSAL A State Probability Cash Flow Deep Recession 0.05 $ –3,000 Mild Recession 0.25 1,000 Normal 0.40 5,000 Minor Boom 0.25 9,000 Major Boom 0.05 13,000 Summary of Proposal A The standard deviation = SQRT (14,400,000) = $3,795 The expected cash flow = $5,000 Coefficient of Variation (CV) = $3,795 / $5,000 = 0.759 CV is a measure of relative risk and is the ratio of standard deviation to the mean of the distribution. What if we used Excel?Summary of Proposal A We end up with the exact same answers, except it allows us to do some other types of scenario analysis. What if the probabilities are different? What if the cash flows are different? Refer to VW13E-14b.xlsx on tab ‘Probability Dist’ Remember? An Illustration of Total Risk (Discrete Distribution) ANNUAL CASH FLOWS: YEAR 1 PROPOSAL B State Probability Cash Flow Deep Recession 0.05 $ –1,000 Mild Recession 0.25 2,000 Normal 0.40 5,000 Minor Boom 0.25 8,000 Major Boom 0.05 11,000 What if we used Excel?Summary of Proposal B We end up with the exact same answers, except it allows us to do some other types of scenario analysis. What if the probabilities are different? What if the cash flows are different? Refer to VW13E-14b.xlsx on tab ‘Probability Dist’ Remember? Probability Tree Approach It is a graphic or tabular approach for organizing the possible cash-flow streams ... Let us replicate the work in Excel! It can be faster and afford us the opportunity to run many different analyses quickly. Summary of the Decision Tree Analysis (