基于GRNN网络的苏州市水资源承载能力评价.pdfVIP

第29卷第2期 水摇 资摇 源摇 保摇 护 2013年3月 Vol.29 No.2 WATER RESOURCES PROTECTION Mar. 2013 DOI:10.3969/ j.issn.1004 6933.2013.02.009 基于 GRNN网络的苏州市水资源承载能力评价 张摇 杰,陆宝宏,李莉会,刘蕊蕊,常摇 娜,许摇 丹,翟梦恩 (河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏 南京摇 210098) 摘要:基于最严格的水资源管理制度和水资源承载能力的内涵,重新确定水资源承载能力评价的指 标体系,构建广义回归神经网络(GRNN)水资源承载能力评价模型,应用于苏州市水资源承载能力 评价,并将评价结果与采用模糊综合评价的结果进行比较。 结果表明:两种评价结果相符;结合用 水总量控制、用水效率控制和限制纳污所建立的指标体系更加科学、更加符合经济社会的发展需 求;苏州市水资源承载能力状况由2004年之前的较低水平逐渐恢复,这种变化与苏州市经济增长 模式的转变和产业结构的调整密切相关。 关键词:水资源承载能力;广义回归神经网络;指标体系;苏州市 中图分类号:TV213摇 摇 摇 文献标志码:A摇 摇 摇 文章编号:1004 6933(2013)02 0043 05 Evaluation of water resources carrying capacity of Suzhou City based on generalized regression neural network ZHANGJie,LU Baohong,LI Lihui,LIU Ruirui,CHANG Na,XU Dan,ZHAI Mengen (College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China) Abstract:Based on the strictest systems for water resources management and the meaning of water resources carrying capacity, an index system was established for evaluation of water resources carrying capacity. The generalizedregressionneuralnetwork (GRNN)wasemployedtobuildanevaluationmodel. Thismodelwasapplied to the evaluation ofthewaterresourcescarryingcapacity of Suzhou City. Theevaluationresultswerecomparedwith those obtained with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The comparison shows that the results of the two modelswere consistent,and the index system that considers the total water consumption control,water utilization efficiency control,and water pollutant admission limitation was more scientific and adaptable to socio鄄economic development. The waterresourcescarryingcapacityof Suzhou Cityhasgraduallyrecoveredsince2004,whenitwas at a low level. This was closely related to the industrial adjustment and economic growth