全流通条件下上市公司财务危机预警模型的构建毕业论文.doc

PAGE II 毕业论文 （20_ _届） 全流通条件下上市公司财务危机预警模型的构建 摘 要 财务危机的发生是一个逐步、渐进的过程，因此财务危机不但具有先兆，并且是可以预测的。正确地预测企业财务危机，对保护投资者和债权人的利益，对经营者防范财务危机，对政府部门监管上市公司质量和证券市场风险，都具有十分重要的现实意义。随着股权分置改革的完成，上市公司的股权结构发生了根本性的变化，在这个全新的股权结构基础上，有必要重新考虑导致财务危机发生的影响因素。 本文通过选取沪深两市2010年首次被“ST”的30 家上市公司作为财务危机样本组，选取与财务危机样本组同行业、资产规模在10 %差异之内的30 家非财务危机上市公司作为配对样本组。并且以综合反映企业的盈利能力、偿债能力、营运能力、发展能力、获取现金能力和股票市值的18个财务指标作为解释变量，运用因子分析法缩减因子，在此基础上建立了Logistic 预警模型，根据本文实证研究所得，上市公司被ST前3年财务指标预警模型判别精度达到90.10%。 关键词：全流通；财务危机；预警模型；实证研究 Abstract Financial crises are a progressive, gradual process, so the financial crisis not only has aura, and is predictable. Predicting financial crisis correctly could protect investors and creditors interests, for the operator preventing financial crisis, and the government department supervising the quality of listed companies and securities market risk, having very important practical significance. With the completion of share-trading reform of listed companies, equity structure has changed ultimately, in this new equity structure basis, it is necessary to reconsider the cause of financial crisis. This article through selecting Shenzhen and Shanghai two stock exchange area 2010 was ST 30 listed companies as a financial crisis sample group, selecting the same area and asset scale in 10 % differences within 30 non financial crisis listed companies as matched sample group. Also, with comprehensive reflection of enterprises profit ability, solvency, operation ability, development, ability to obtain cash ability and shares 18 financial index as repressors, using the factor analysis method, the reduction factor based on the early warning model, according to this article Logistic empirical research income, the listed companies before 3 years by ST financial index warning model discrimination 90.10% precision. Keywords: The full circulation; financial crisis; early warning model; Empirical study PAGE III 目 录 TOC \o 1-4 \h \z \u HYPERLINK \l _Toc289113120 1 研究概述 PAGEREF _Toc289113120 \h 1 HYPER