人民币升值与国民收入变动对中美贸易的影响.docVIP

  人民币升值与国民收入变动对中美贸易的 影响 柳向东，陈天然* 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 （暨南大学统计学系，广州 510632） 摘要：近十年来中美两国的贸易摩擦不断升级，2010 年美方一度放出言论要把中国列入汇 率操纵国，以此来提高中国出口商品的关税。自 2005 年中国汇改以来，人民币升值幅度已 超 30%，然而美国对中国的贸易逆差仍然不断增加。本文通过搜集两国 1999-2011 年的季度 数据，通过建立 VAR 模型及协整检验，拟合人民币兑美元实际有效汇率、中美两国收入水 平及美国对中贸易逆差的相关关系。结果发现美国贸易逆差并非由人民币低估引起的。通过 建立美国进口需求模型和美国对中出口模型，结果显示美国国民收入每增加 1 亿元，美国从 中国的进口额就会约增加 174 万美元，而中国国民收入每增加 1 亿元，中国对美国的进口额 约增加 192 万美元。这说明美国长期的贸易逆差是市场供需作用调节的结果，与人民币汇率 并不直接相关。 关键词：协整检验；VAR 模型；人民币升值；美国对中国贸易逆差 中图分类号：F820 The Impact of RMB Appreciation and Changes in National Income on Sino-US trade LIU Xiangdong, CHEN Tianran (Department of Statistics,Jinan University,Guangzhou 510632) Abstract: In the recent decade, trade conflicts between China and the United State have been escalating. In 2010 the Obama administration even threatened to label China a “currency manipulator”. The action, if taking place, would doubtlessly lift the tariff of China export goods. Since the reform of the exchange regime was introduced in 2005, the RMB, in fact, have already risen by over 30%. However, it turns out that US deficit with China has still been increasing over years. According to quarterly data from 1999Q1 to 2011Q4, the article firstly built a VAR model and did co-integration test to fit the correlation among RMB real effective rate against the USD dollar, US trade deficit with China, and income levels of US and China. The result proved that it was not the undervaluation of the RMB that led to American trade deficit. The article then built an American-Import-Demand model and an American-Export-Supply model, and the result showed that per 1000 mil. Dollars added to GDP of US would lead to a 1.74 mil. Dollars increase in US import turnover from China; similarly, per 1000 mil. Dollars added to GDP of China would lead to a 1.94mil.This proves that it is the effect of market supply-demand that cause US trade deficit with China,not the RMB exchange rate. Key words: Co-integration test; VAR model; RMB appreciation; US