YD事件结束前亚洲季风突变预警信号初探.pdfVIP

中国科技论文在线 YD 事件结束前亚洲季风突变预警信号初探 # 黄沁昕，刘殿兵** 5 （南京师范大学地理科学学院，南京 210023） 摘要：气候突变预警信号对研究气候突变爆发方式、特征及细节过程，未来气候预测有着极 为重要学术价值及社会意义。青天洞年纹层石笋 δ18O 记录显示，在新仙女木 （Younger Dryas,YD ）事件结束前(11.64-11.54 ka .P.期间) ，季风变化存在2 个数十年尺度次级波动，历 10 时约97±7 年。该期季风强度颤动与此前YD 内部季风变化相比呈现低幅、高频特征，且在 整个过程中季风强度总体保持上升,且在11.59 ka B.P.显示出自相关增强。这些特征与最近洱 海湖泊生态系统突变前频繁波动特征类似，说明高频、低幅波动可能反映不同动力系统接近 其临界值，可作为突变的前兆信号。 15 关键词：自然地理学；季风突变；预警信号；新仙女木事件 中图分类号：P95 The warning signal of abrupt Asian monsoon variability at the end of Younger Dryas event 20 Huang Qinxin, LIU Dianbing (College of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023) Abstract : Climate warning signal is of scientific and societal importance to understand the mode, character and details of abrupt climate changes, and predict the future climate evolution. An annually counted stalagmite δ18O from Qingtian Cave shows that two decadal minor Asian monsoon 25 oscillations are evident before the end of Younger Dryas (YD) event, lasting 97±years (11.64-11.54 ka B.P.). These Asian monsoon flickerings, analogous to those high-frequency changes in the Erhai Lake ecosystem before critical transition exhibit an increasing autocorrelation from 11.59 ka B.P., indicate that dynamical system reaches its threshold, and the high-frequency, low-amplitude oscillations can be applied as their warning signals. 30 Key words: Physical Geography; abrupt Asian monsoon variability; warning signal; the Younger Dryas event 0 引言 气候系统突变表现为从一种稳定态向另外一种截然不同稳定态突跃。在突变爆发前，其