概率论在企业管理的应用.docVIP

概率论在经济中的应用 摘要 随着科学的发展，数学在生活中的应用越来越广.而概率作为数学的一个重要部分，同样也在发挥着越来越广泛的用处.由于传统的数学教育属于知识传授型，不注意学生对数学方法产生的背景和思想的理解，使学生不善于利用所学到的数学知识、数学方法去分析、解决实际问题.加强数学的应用性，让学生用数学知识和数学的思维方法去看待，分析，解决实际生活问题，在数学活动中获得生活经验，这是当前课程改革的趋势.我们不仅要学好理论知识，更重要的是应用理论来实践.学好概率论，并应用概率知识解决现实问题已是我们必要的一种生活素养.本文将先对概率论的起源和发展做简单介绍，再通过实例讨论概率论在在经济管理、经济损失估测、投资风险估测、经济保险等几个经济管理估测问题中的应用. 关键字：概率论;解决问题;经济领域;应用 ABSTRACT With the development of science, mathematics application in daily life is becoming more and more popular. While the probability of mathematics as an important part, but also plays a more and more widely. Due to the traditional mathematics education belongs to knowledge imparting, do not pay attention to students mathematical method to produce the background and ideological understanding, so that students are not good at learn to use the knowledge of mathematics, mathematics method to analysis, solve practical problems. Strengthen mathematics application, allowing students to use mathematical knowledge and mathematical thinking method to treat, analysis, solve real life problems, in math activities of life experience, which is the current tendency of curriculum reform. We should not only learn the theory knowledge, more important is the application of theory to practice. Learn the probability theory, and the application of probability theory to solve practical problems is we need a life quality. This paper will be the first probability theory origin and development to do a brief introduction, and then through the examples discussed in probability theory in economic management, economic loss estimation, risk of investment estimation, economic insurance economic management estimate application. Keywords: Probability theory; problem solving; economy; application 1. 引言 现实世界中形形色色的自然现象、社会现象大致可分为两类：一类是事先能确定其结果的现象，即确定性现象，如今天太阳必然会落下去，同性电荷互相排斥等.另一类是事先不能确定其结果的现象为随机现象,这类现象的可能结果不会是一种,如同品种种子播种到肥力均匀的田地里,每粒种子是否发芽、掷一枚骰子,可能结果有6种等，这种随机现象是否有规律,便成为数学研究中的一个问题.概率论就是运用数学方法研究随机现象统计规律性的一门数学学科.概率, 简单地说,就是随机现象出现的可能性大小的一种度量.随着现代科学的