尾矿区重金属污染浓度预测模型及其应用53834.pdfVIP

35 6 ( ) Vol. 35 No6 2004 12 J. CENT. SOUTH UNIV. ( SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY) Dec. 2004 1 2 1 , , ( 1. 中南大学 资源与安全工程学院, 湖南长沙, 410083; 2. 上海理工大学 城市与环境工程学院, 上海, 200093) : 为了研究尾矿库周边 田土壤重金属污染状况, 通过调查收集了国内某铅锌矿山尾砂库周边 田重金属含 量的历史数据, 应用指数平滑法建立了预测尾矿库重金属污染浓度的数学模型, 并计算了不同平滑系数时数学模 型的精度, 同时应用建立的数学模型对该区域 10 a 后的重金属浓度进行了预测研究结果表明: 10 a 后该尾矿库 周边重金属Pb, Zn, Cd 和As 浓度将分别为预测时的1. 335, 1. 191, 1. 886 和2. 10 倍; 指数平滑法的应用效果与平滑 系数的选取关系密切, 应用时, 要根据指数平滑法建立的物理意义正确地分析和选取平滑系数, 并对预测的精度进 行分析 :尾矿区; 重金属污染; 指数平滑法; 预测模型 :TD 8 :A : 16 2 20 ( 2004) Forecast Models of Heavy Metal Contamination near Tailing Dam and Their Application 1 2 LIAO Guoli , ZHOU Yinda , WU Chao ( 1. School of Resources and Safety Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China; 2. College of City Construction and Environment Engineering, Shanghai University of Science and Technology, Shanghai 200093, China) Abstract: In order to investigate the farmland soil heavy metal pollution near a metal mine, the exponential smooth method was used to establish the mathematical models based on the history measuring data for forecast ing the heavy metal concentration. Accuracy analysis of the models with different smooth coefficientswere con ducted, and the mathematical models were applied to forecast the heavy metal concentration near the tailing dam in the future of ten years. The forecast results show that Pb, Zn, Cd and As concentra