基于可拓分析与物元模型城市电网规划风险评价的研究.pdfVIP

37 6 V ol 37, N o6 2010 11 Journal o f N o rth Ch ina E lectr ic Pow er U niversity N ov. , 20 10 1 1 1 1 2 何永秀 , 戴爱英 , 杨卫红 , 罗 涛, 刘丙瑞 1 , 102206; 2 , 100101) : 随着城市经济的发展, 城市电网规划面临的风险 来 复杂, 为提高城市电网规划的科学性, 应对其 风险进行科学评价分析了以往城市电网项目风险评价方法的不足后, 提出了基于物元模型与可拓分析理论 的城市电网风险评价模型, 该模型引入了可拓集合中的关联函数与关联度, 能方便地将定性指标定量化最 后结合某城市电网规划进行了实证分析, 结果表明: 该方法具有较强的可行性和实用性 : 城市电网; 电网规划; 物元模型; 可拓分析; 风险评价 : TM 715; F 283 : A : 1007269 1 2010) R isk assessm ent of urban network planning based on the m atterelem ent m odel and extension analysis 1 1 1 1 2 H E Y ongx iu , DA I A iy ing , YANG W e ihong , LUO T ao , L IU B ingru i 1 Schoo l o f Econom ics andM anagement, N orth China E lectric Pow er U n ive rsity, Be ij ing 102206, Ch ina; 2G reatw a ll D r illing Company, B eijing 100 101, Ch ina) A b stract: W ith the deve lopm en t of c ities, urban pow er ne wt ork p lann ing confronts m ore and m ore com plex r isks. T o mi prove the sc ientif icity o f the p lann ing, risks o f urban netw ork planning need to be eva luated reasonab ly. A fter com para tive ly analyzing of the m ethods forme rly u sed to eva luate risks in urban netw o rk plann ing, the r isk evalua tion mode l based on m atterelem ent theo ry and extension analysisw as put fo rw a rd. Correlation function and correlation degree w e re introduced in ex tension se t in the model. F ina lly, the results o f an emp irica l ana lysis on a ce rtain pow er netw ork plan ning