基于贸易视角人民币区域化的研究.docVIP

基于贸易视角的人民币区域化研究 ——贸易关联度和经济周期一致性的相关关系检验本文最优货币区标准内生性的模型验证中国同亚洲国家双边贸易关联度与经济相关程度之间的关系贸易关联度RMB Regionalization: From the point of view of Trade ——An Empirical Tests for the Correlation of Bilateral Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Correlation Abstract: This paper investigates relevant problems of RMB regionalization from the point of view of trade. A quantitative analysis is made to discuss the regional economic environment for RMB regionalization in scope of macroeconomics. The theory of Optimum Currency Areas (OCA) and relative research of RMB regionalization are presented. An empirical methodology of OCA which has already been applied abroad, is used to tests the correlation of bilateral trade intensity and business cycle correlation between China and other Asian countries. To test whether economic environment of Asia is suitable for the regionalization of RMB, fifteen years of data for twenty Asian countries is used. The empirical results show that consistent correlation does exist in bilateral trade intensity and business cycle correlation between China and other Asian countries, which provide a good precondition for RMB regionalization. As the resulting trade integration of China and other Asian countries deepens, economic relevance begins to show the same developing trend. Key words: RMB Regionalization; Optimum Currency Area; Business Cycle; Trade Intensity; 一 问题提出 由于中国的经济实力人民币汇率的持续稳定，以及中国政府在亚洲金融危机中表现出的高度责任感人民币的国际声望大大提高周边国家和地区居民逐渐认可和接受人民币作为交易货币和国际清算手段，大量人民币在境外流通。人民币在东南亚地区的自由流通已受到“第二美元”的待遇，一些国家和地区的居民还把人民币为一种储手段。但是人民币周边国家的国际化是一个自发的过程，制度性研究。鉴于现阶段中国经济发展与亚洲国家经济的关联度不断增强，以及未来中国在亚洲地区经济地位和作用的，必须将人民币区域化问题置于亚洲体系的构建中来思考和谋划。的OCA）框架下，贸易关联度经济周期和冲击的相似性劳动力的流动程度财政转移的风险分摊系统成员国内部相关关系。之间这四者的联系越大，越适合成立共同货币。根据J· A· Frankel·Rose（1998）的最优货币区标准内生性（the endogeneity of the optimum currency area criteria）的理论，OCA标准的内生性极大地降低了货币同盟的理论成本以及加入货币同盟标准的适用性。最优货币区标准内生性的理论如果随着中国同亚洲国家间贸易关联度的加强，亚洲国家间经济周期也趋于一致，，这将为人民币区域化提供理论支持。本文最优货币区标准内生性的模型来验证中国同亚洲国家双边贸易关联度与经济相关程度之间的关系，以此来。中国目前仍然是一个发展中国家，在国际贸易和