人力资源需求的预测.pptVIP

PURPOSE The purpose of the Delphi technique is to elicit information and judgments from participants to facilitate problem-solving, planning, and decision-making. It does so without physically assembling the contributors. Instead, information is exchanged via mail, FAX, or email. This technique is designed to take advantage of participants’ creativity as well as the facilitating effects of group involvement and interaction. It is structured to capitalize on the merits of group problem-solving and minimize the liabilities of group problem-solving. PROCESS Identify the issue and solicit ideas Response to first questionnaire Create and send Questionnaire #2 Response to second questionnaire Create and send Questionnaire #3. Continuation of the process Resolution 人力资源需求的预测 人力资源供求状况分析 升职 升职 招聘 岗位编制 调入 降职 降职 离职 调出 人才市场 竞争对手 其他部门 其他业务 本部门 本部门 人力资源需求的预测 A key component of HRP is forecasting the number and type of people needed to meet organizational objectives. A variety of organizational factors, including competitive strategy, technology, structure, and productivity, can influence the demand Forecasting HR Requirements Estimate of numbers and kinds of employees the organization will need at future dates Demand for firm’s goods or services must be forecast Forecast is then converted into people requirements Forecasting HR Availability Determining whether the firm will be able to secure employees with the necessary skills, and from what sources these individuals may be obtained Show whether the needed employees may be obtained from within the company, from outside the organization, or from a combination of the two sources 人才储备 第一年 第二年 第三年 n1 n2 n3 招聘 招聘 人才储备1 人才储备2 n2－（n１＋人才储备１）＝招聘需求 n3－（n2－人才储备2）＝人才储备需求 人才稀缺度越高 人才储备越重要 规划的关键是n1、n2、n3的确定 定量分析方法(Quantitative Approaches ) Quantitative approaches to forecasting involve the use of statistical or mathematical technique; they are the approaches used by theoreticians and professional planners. 趋势预测法 (Trend analysis ) “