资产价格波动如何影响实体经济波动：金融危机传导的资产负债表渠道.pdfVIP

资产价格波动如何影响实体经济波动？ ——金融危机传导的资产负债表渠道 王义中 陈雪 （浙江大学经济学院，310027 ） 摘 要：资产价格波动会影响企业净资产，尤其在金融危机期间，会恶化企业资产负债 表，提高企业融资成本和降低企业资金需求，引起投资和产量萎缩，实体经济下滑。本文得 到的宏观经验事实是资产价格波动单向影响实体经济波动，为此构建资产价格波动影响企业 投资行为的微观理论模型，并进一步提供微观经验证据。结果表明：资产价格波动通过资产 负债表渠道并没有显著影响融资能力较强的企业，而只是冲击到融资能力弱的企业；实施新 会计规则之后，资产价格波动借助资产负债表渠道影响企业投资行为的效果更明显。政策内 涵是：公允价值会计规则会借助资产负债表放大资产价格波动效应，需要通过资本缓冲、前 瞻性储备和更加透明的信息披露来解决；扩张性宏观经济政策需考虑私人经济主体是否具有 资金需求，纳入资产负债表信息到政府经济政策框架中。 关键词：资产价格 金融危机 资产负债表 How do Fluctuations in Asset Prices affect the Real Economic Dynamics? ——The Balance Sheet Channel of Financial Crisis Transmission Wang Yi-zhong Chen Xue （School of Economics，Zhejiang University ） Abstract: Fluctuations in asset prices will vary the net asset value of a firm from time to time. Especially in the period of financial crisis, it is the deteriorating balance sheet conditions that raise financing costs, reduce cash flow demand and cause both investment expenditure and production to shrink down. And such sufferings to thousands of firms make for the whole depression of real economy eventually. Considering two basic financing methods for firms, we establish a model to describe the effect of fluctuations in asset prices on corporate investment behavior. In according to the theoretical prediction, We also find empirical evidence that the effect of asset price fluctuations through the channel of the balance sheet will be more significant to the firms whose financing ability is high than the ones whose is low. And by the channel of balance sheet, asset price fluctuations have a greater impact on corporate investment behavior since the new accounting rules have been carried out. At last two policy implications are induced as follows: Firstly, firms should be a