1960_2010年关中地区旱涝灾害对气候变化的响应_窦睿音.pdf

38 5 () Vol.38 No.5 2012 10 Journal of Hunan Agricultural University (Natural Sciences) Oct 2012 DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1238.2012.00542 1960—2010年关中地区旱涝灾害对气候变化的响应  * ( 710062)   摘 要1960—2010 Mann–Kendall Z 51 1995 3.6%23.8% 关 键 词 中图分类号P426.6 文献标志码A 文章编号1007–1032(2012)05–0542–06   Characteristics of drought and flood and its response to climate change in Guanzhong plain in 1960 to 2010 * DOU Rui-yinYAN Jun-ping (College of Tourism and Environment Science, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710062, China)      Abstract: Based on meteorological data of Guanzhong plain from 1960 to 2010, the characteristics of climate change in Guanzhong plain and the change of drought and flood before and after the temperature jump were analyzed by linear regression analysis, Mann-Kendall test and Z index. The results showed that the annual average temperature is gradually increased in the past 51 years and the annual precipitation showed a downward trend, indicating a significant warming and drying trend in climate change. The time of the temperature jump occurred around 1995 ；after the temperature jump, the flood events in Guanzhong plain decreased by 3.6% and the drought events increased by 23.8%, indicating an obvious drought trend. Key words: temperature; precipitation; temperature jump; drought and flood; Guanzhong plain 20 19 0.560.92 ℃21 [1–4] ( )