ARCHIVED - PI Aging Simulation Model - 11--2007 - NIH.pptVIP

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ARCHIVED - PI Aging Simulation Model - 11--2007 - NIH.ppt

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ARCHIVED - PI Aging Simulation Model - 11--2007 - NIH.ppt

What Does This Tell Us? We have a model that is capable of forecasting the age distributions of the PI pool given assumptions on influxes and tenures. Making dramatic changes can have dramatic impacts. Scenario 2: New PI Distribution 1 Constant rate of 1500 New PI’s Age 25-35: 25% Age 36-40: 20% Age 41-45: 20% Age 46-50: 15% Age 51-55: 10% Age 56-60: 10% Age 61-80: 0% Scenario 2, New PI Distribution 1: 2006 Avg Age = 47.5 Scenario 2, New PI Distribution 1: 2011 Avg Age = 47.6 Scenario 2, New PI Distribution 1: 2016 Avg Age = 48.2 What Does This Tell Us? The “ideal” age distribution for the PI pool is still an unknown target. With changes that occur due to feedback loops in the system, the established age distribution policy for new PI’s for future years will likely change every few years. In other words, there is no constant age distribution policy for incoming new PI’s that will provide the “ideal” PI pool age distribution over the long run. Additional Test Scenarios for Final Workforce Group Meeting November 14, 2007 Test Scenario: Effect of the Number of New PIs on the Average Age of the Total Pool Age Distribution 24-35: 25% 36-40: 20% 41-45: 20% 46-50: 15% 51-55: 10% 56-60: 10% 61-90: 0% Test Scenario: Effect of the Number of New PIs on the Average Age of the Total Pool Age Distribution 24-35: 25% 36-40: 20% 41-45: 20% 46-50: 15% 51-55: 10% 56-60: 10% 61-90: 0% Distribution #1 Distribution #3 Distribution #2 24-35: 25% 36-40: 20% 41-45: 20% 46-50: 15% 51-55: 10% 56-60: 10% 61-90: 0% 24-35: 25% 36-40: 40% 41-45: 15% 46-50: 10% 51-55: 5% 56-60: 5% 61-90: 0% 24-35: 25% 36-40: 60% 41-45: 10% 46-50: 5% 51-55: 0% 56-60: 0% 61-90: 0% Test Scenario: Small Changes in the Age Distribution of the New PI pool Distribution #1 Distribution #3 Distribution #2 1100 New PIs 1500 New PIs Test Scenario: Small Changes in the Age Distribution of the New PI pool Test Scenario: Extreme Case – Replacing the PI Pool Conclusions The model in its current state matches historic