社会演化中自稳定、不稳定与临界稳定机制.docVIP

社会演化中的自稳定、不稳定与临界稳定机制 —发展中的自我强化路径与国家富裕( 何哲 （国家行政学院公共管理教研部，北京，100089） 摘要：为什么有些国家能够长期发展并最终实现国家富裕，而有些国家却始终陷入摆脱不了“发展-衰退”的陷阱？这是长期困扰经济和社会学家、政治学家的问题。已有的研究从经济制度、社会组织、政治制度等各个角度进行了探索。然而，现有研究大都试图在某些具体的要素与国家发展之间建立联系，而忽略了国家发展本身的状态。本文认为，社会演化中存在着明显的稳定、不稳定与临界稳定的状态和演化机制。而这一机制本身与形式上的国家制度无关。只有在一定社会边界条件实现的情况下，使得一个社会内生性的形成自我强化和稳定的社会状态并进入到能够推动持续发展的自稳定演化路径中，这一社会才能够通过持续的演化发展实现国家富裕和社会稳定。而非发达国家，由于无法使自身进入到自稳定的演化路径中，而稳定需要某些特殊条件的保持，因此，即使在临界稳定条件下短期内实现了经济发展，但一旦临界条件变化，社会很快就会重新回到不稳定状态导致大范围的衰退。因此，国家真正能够实现长久的发展和服务的关键是要使得自身社会形成自稳定的社会状态并进入到自我强化的不可逆的持续发展路径中去。 关键字：社会演化；自稳定；不稳定；发展；富裕 中图分类号：C911;D033;F120.3 文献标识码：A 文章编号： Self-stability ,Non-Stability and Critical stability in Social Development --The Self-enhanced Pathway of Development and Nation’s Persperity He Zhe (Public Administration Department of Chinese Academy of Govance, Beijing, 100089) Abstract:Why few of counrtries can flourish sustainably but others can not.This question bothers researchers in social fileds for a long time.Economists, political scientists,and socialists have given different answers.However, there is still far-away to find it. This paper suggests there exists three different social states: self-statbility,non-stablitity;and Critical stability and the corresponding mechnisms.The only way for sustanable development is to enter the self-stablization pathway. The reason why most developing countries can not jump the devleopment trap is because they can not form the self-stability and enter the self-stabilization pathway.Therefore, although some developing countries can grow very fast in a period under critical stable state, however, when the factors changes,the country will still be unstable and economy also fall back. Therefore, the only way for countries to be rich irreversibly is to form self-stability and enter self-stabilization evolutionary pathway. Keywords: social evolutions;self-stability;non-stability;devleopment;persperity 探寻社会发展运行的基本机制并实现国家的富裕和社会的发展，一直以来都是社会科学各领域研究者所孜孜追求的目标。然而，一个长期困扰经济学家、社会学家、政治学家等各领域