Chap012行为金融与技术分析.ppt

INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS Copyright ? 2011 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw-Hill/Irwin CHAPTER 12 Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 行为金融与技术分析 12-* Behavioral Finance行为金融 Conventional Finance传统金融 Prices are correct; equal to intrinsic value. 资产价格正确时等于其内在价值 Resources are allocated efficiently.资源被正确的分配 Consistent with EMH与有效市场假说一致 Behavioral Finance行为金融 What if investors don’t behave rationally? 行为金融研究：如果投资者不够理性怎么办？ 12-* The Behavioral Critique来自行为学派的批评 Two categories of irrationalities:两类不理性 Investors do not always process information correctly.投资者没有总是正确的处理信息 Result: Incorrect probability distributions of future returns.不能正确推断未来收益的分布情况，以至于投资决策失误 Even when given a probability distribution of returns, investors may make inconsistent or suboptimal decisions.即使收益的概率分布是正常的给定的，投资者依然会有次优决策或者前后矛盾的地方 Result: They have behavioral biases.理性行为偏差 12-* Errors in Information Processing: Misestimating True Probabilities Forecasting Errors: Too much weight is placed on recent experiences.预测错误，太注重最近的经验 Overconfidence: Investors overestimate their abilities and the precision of their forecasts.过度自信，高估自己的能力和预测的精度 Conservatism: Investors are slow to update their beliefs and under react to new information.太保守，不能够及时更新观念，不能及时对新的信息作出反应 Sample Size Neglect and Representativeness: Investors are too quick to infer a pattern or trend from a small sample.忽视样本规模，因此样本的代表性不够；投资者往往很快从一些小概率事件中总结规律，这导致过度反应或者反应不足的情况 12-* Behavioral Biases行为偏差 Biases result in less than rational decisions, even with perfect information.即使信息处理过程完美，人们也不一定就能够做出完全的理性决策 Examples: Framing: 框定偏差 How the risk is described, “risky losses” vs. “risky gains”, can affect investor decisions.怎么设定风险，是风险损失还是风险获得，也能影响决策：比如一小气鬼落水，朋友援手，说把你的手给我~结果他不理朋友；朋友换种说法，抓住我的手，他马上做出来正确决策 12-* Behavioral Biases行为偏差 Mental Accounting:心理账户 Investors may segregate accounts or monies and take risks with their gains that they would not take with their principal