甘肃临夏高寒地区春玉米螟动态气候预测模型.pdfVIP

生 物 灾 害 科 学 2012, 35(3): 337 －341 Biological Disaster Science, Vol. 35, No. 3, 2012 swzhkx@163.com DOI ：10.3969/j.issn.2095-3704.2012.03.028 甘肃临夏高寒地区春玉米螟动态气候预测模型 孙玉莲 （甘肃省临夏州气象局，甘肃临夏 731100 ） 摘要：利用临夏地区 1990-2007 年的气温、降水、日照等气象资料，采用数理统计及多元回归方法，分析高寒地 区干旱和阴湿两种不同气候背景下玉米螟生成的主要气候影响因子，按不同气候种植区，建立玉米螟动态气候预 测模式。经检验，临夏地区玉米螟的发生与当地的气象条件有直接的关系，且玉米螟发生期早期和晚期预测准确 率达 70% 以上，效果良好。 关键词：玉米螟；动态气候；预测模型； 中图分类号：S435.132 文献标志码：A 文章编号：2095 －3704 （2012 ）03 －0337 －05 The Model of Climate Prediction Dynamic of Corn Borer in High Cold Regions in Linxia of Gansu Province SUN Yu-lian （Meteorology Bureau of Linxia Hui Autonomous Prefecture, Linxia 731100, China ） Abstract: Based on meteorological data including temperature, precipitation and sunshine in Linxia Prefecture in 1990-2000, using the multiple regression method, the present paper analyzed the main meteorological factors resulted in outbreak of the corn borer under two kinds of different climate background, e.i., drought and dank in the alpine area. The model for prediction of corn borer population dynamics was established according to different climate planting areas. After testing the model, it was confirmed that occurrence of the corn borer had a direct relationship with the local climate condition, and accurate rate of predicting the early and late occurrence of the insects reached to more than 70%. Keyword: corn borer; population dynamic; climate; prediction model 玉米适应性广泛，凡大于 10 ℃以上、夏季平均 影响[3] ，临夏地区年平均气温升温明显，病虫害越 气温在 18 ℃以上的地区都可种植[1] 。临夏州地处甘 冬死亡率降低，玉米螟呈加重发生的趋势，不仅严 肃省东南部青藏高原和黄土高原沟壑过渡区，年平 重影响了粮食产量，也影响了粮食的品质，玉米螟 均气温 5.2~9.4 ℃之间，夏季平均气温在 18 ℃以上，