岩体等效抗剪强度概率特征值评估在边坡稳定性可靠度分析中的应用.pdfVIP

41 6 四川大 学 学 报 ( 工程 科 学版 ) V o.l 41 No. 6 2009 11 JOURNAL OF SICHUAN UNIVERSITY ( ENGINEER ING SCIENCE ED ITION ) Nov. 2009 : 1009 087( 2009) 06002 05 符文熹 ( , , 610065) : H oekB rown , H oekB rown, H oekBrow n , Rosenb luethM onteCarlo 2 , M on teCarlo, Rosenb lueth Rosenblueth, : H oekBrow n; ; ; ; : TU457 : A Probability Estimation ofEquivalent Shear Strength for RockMass and ItsApplication inReliabilityAnalysis of Slope Stability FU Wenxi ( State Key Lab. ofHydraulic andM ounta in R iver Eng. , Schoo l ofW ater Resource and Hydropow er, Sichuan Univ. , Chengdu 610065, China) Abstract: In order to elmi inate the accumulative probability errors resulting from using ind irect variables in the HoekBrown criterion, the equivalent MohrCoulomb parameter probabilities w ere estmi ated directly from its basic variables. On the basis of a brief introduction of the HoekBrown criterion, the Rosenblueth point estmi ate and MonteCarlomethodsw ere selected to calculate the equivalentMohrCou lomb parameter probabilities of rock mass for a slope and the reliab ility index and failure probab ility of slope stab ility by tw o differentmethods aswel.l A lthough only a little difference existed in the computational resu lts calcu lated by the two methods, but only a small amount of calculations are needed in the Rosenblueth point estmi atemethod. Because theRosenblueth point estmi atemethod is smi p le, it can be used to estmi ate parameter probab ility, stab ility reliab ility and failure probab ility related to rock mass in engineering. Key ords:HoekBrow n criterion; equ ivalent shear strength; slope stability; reliability analysis; point estmi ate method