基于期权博弈理论的石油企业海外项目投资策略的研究.docVIP

摘 要 近年来，伴随着国民经济的飞速发展，我国对能源需求尤其是石油和天然气 的需求急剧增长。自 1993 年成为石油净进口国以来，我国石油净进口量逐年攀 升，进口依存度也不断上升，2011 年石油净进口量 2.72 亿吨，原油净进口量 2.53 亿吨，对外依存度分别达到 56.7% 和 55.1%，首次双超 55%。在这种背景之下， 出于国家能源安全和企业自身发展战略的需要，积极走出国门、投资海外油气项 目就成了中国石油企业的必经之路。 与国内勘探开发项目不同，石油企业在投资海外项目时将面临复杂的政治经 济环境，信息资料的不完善性和资源条件的不确定性将使投资决策具有更大的风 险性，而竞争企业的参与也将会使投资价值受到一定程度减损，并影响企业最佳 投资时机的选择。而传统的石油企业项目投资决策方法忽略了对不确定性灵活反 应的能力和投资创造后续机会的战略价值。期权博弈理论融合了实物期权思维和 博弈论的思想，同时考虑了不确定性期权价值和策略互动博弈价值，是项目投资 策略研究的最新发展。鉴于此，运用期权博弈理论来分析企业海外投资项目，既 可以得出项目价值的分析判断，也可以同时表现这种价值分析对应的博弈均衡特 征与主体策略选择。 本文运用期权博弈方法，分析了石油企业在垄断和竞争两种不同情况下的海 外投资等待期权的价值与投资临界点。垄断条件下，等待到投资临界点可以增加 项目价值；竞争情况下，企业由于有投资机会失去的风险，所以应提前投资。 关键词： 期权博弈 海外投资 实物期权 ABSTRACT In recent years, with the rapid development of national economy, China has a fast-growing demand for energy resources, especially for oil and gas. Since China became a net oil importer in 1993, its net oil import has been rising year by year and the import dependence degree has also been gradually ascending. In 2011, China’s net oil import reached 272 million tons and the net crude oil import reached 253 million tons, with the import dependence degree 56.7% and 55.1% respectively (for the first time in history both exceed 55%). Under these circumstances, stepping out of the homeland to investing overseas oil and gas projects becomes inevitable for Chinese petroleum enterprises to meet the needs of national energy security and their own development strategies. Distinct from domestic exploration and development projects, overseas investment projects confront petroleum enterprises with complicated political and economic climate. At the same time, incomplete information materials and uncertain resource conditions make the investment more risky. In addition, the involvement of competitive enterprises reduces to some extent the investment value and affecting petroleum enterprises in choosing the best time to invest. However, traditional decision methods of petroleum enterprises project investment lack the flexible reaction ability