中国人口灰色动态模型及其周期分析.pdfVIP

中国人口灰色动态模型及其周期分析 1 2 3 杜 鹃 郝永红 王学萌 1) 山西大学环境与资源学院 太原 030006 2) 天津师范大学水环境与水资源重点实验室 天津 030006 3) 山西省农业资源综合考察研究所 太原 030006 摘 要 人口问题一直是制约和影响我国可持续发展的关键因素之一。影响人口系统变化的因素众多，这些因素之间的结构关系难 以准确描述，它们对人口变化的作用更是无法精确计算。可见，人口系统是一个信息不完全的典型灰色系统。运用灰色系统 GM(1,1) 模型建立我国人口发展的灰色动态模型，通过检验和残差分析，本文对我国建国以来人口发展的态势与周期变化作了科学划分，为预 测我国人口未来发展的趋势，制定合理的人口政策和人口规划提供科学的依据。 关键词 灰色系统，人口趋势量，GM(1,1)动态模型，残差周期分析 The Grey Dynamic Mode and Periodical Analysis of Population in China 1 2 3 Juan Du Yonghong Hao Xuemeng Wang 1) School of Environmental and Resources，Shanxi University 03006 (E-mail: djuan819@163.con) 2) Key Laboratory for Water Environment and Resources, Tianjin Normal University 300387 (E-mail: haoyh@163.con) 3) Institute of Integrated survey of Agriculture Resource Academy of Agricultural Science 030006 (E-mail: wxmsxty@) Abstract—The population problem is one of the key factors that has been restricted and influenced the sustainable development of China. There are many factors affecting the change of population system. The structural relationships between these factors are difficult to be described exactly and their functions in population changes are not calculated accurately. Therefore the population system is a typical grey system with incomplete information. We establish grey dynamic model of population development according to the GM(1,1) model and make division of the developments in trend and cycle since 1949 by the test and the analysis of residual error. A scientific basis is provided for forecasting the trend of population development and making rational population policy and plan Keywords—grey system, long-term trend of popu